Will the S&P 500 close on September 30, 2026, above the closing level on July 30, 2026?
Current probability of “Yes”: 50%
- Status
- Resolved
- Category
- Economy
- Closing date
- 30 September 2026
- Participants
- 0
- Outcome
- Yes
- Resolution date
- 1 October 2026
VangAI analysis
VangAI edge: +5 pp
- The S&P 500 began September 2026 above its 200-day moving average, historically associated with slight gains in September.
- In August 2026, the S&P 500 reached an all-time high, indicating a strong bullish trend.
- AI investments continue to rise, positively impacting the technology sector and, consequently, the S&P 500.
- Despite historically weak September performance, current market conditions and technical indicators suggest potential gains.
Like a boat rowing against the current but with a favorable wind.
Market rules
Yes = close 30.09 > close 30.07.
No = ≤.