Will xAI release the Grok 5 model to the public by December 31, 2026?
Current probability of “Yes”: 88%
- Status
- Open
- Category
- Technologies
- Closing date
- 1 January 2027
- Participants
- 1
VangAI analysis
VangAI estimate: -13% for “No”, confidence 80%
- Elon Musk stated that Grok 5 could achieve AGI level, indicating significant ambition and investment in its development.
Like a company announcing plans to build a skyscraper but hasn't laid the foundation yet.
Market rules
The market resolves to "Yes" if the company xAI officially releases the Grok 5 model (under any final name stated as "Grok 5") to the public (via app, API, or X/Grok products) by December 31, 2026, according to official announcements from xAI (https://x.ai/news) or statements from Elon Musk, confirmed through the company's official channels. Beta testing for a limited group of users without a broad public release does not count. If an announcement is made, but public access is technically delayed by less than 72 hours due to server load, the market still resolves to "Yes".