Will Van Gogh's 'Châtaigniers en fleurs' leave the Blaquier-Arrieta collection at Sotheby’s for $200 million or more?
Current probability of “Yes”: 88%
- Status
- Open
- Category
- Business
- Closing date
- 20 November 2026
- Participants
- 1
VangAI analysis
VangAI edge: -13 pp
- Van Gogh's 'Blossoming Chestnut Trees' is estimated at $180 million, close to the $200 million threshold.
- The painting is guaranteed by Sotheby's, indicating high confidence in its sale.
- The previous auction record for Van Gogh is $117 million, significantly lower than the current estimate.
- The painting hasn't been publicly exhibited for over 50 years, enhancing its appeal to collectors.
Like a rare diamond that attracts collectors and fetches record prices.
Market rules
Yes, if Vincent van Gogh's painting 'Châtaigniers en fleurs' (1890) is sold at the evening auction of Sotheby’s 'Legendary: The Blaquier-Arrieta Collection' in New York (scheduled for November 18, 2026) for a final price of at least $200,000,000, including buyer's commission (Price realised / Sold for on the lot page of Sotheby’s). Otherwise No. If the lot is withdrawn, unsold, sold privately before the auction, or the auction is postponed to a date after 20.11.2026 12:00 UTC — No. In case of discrepancies, the priority is given to the lot/results page of Sotheby’s, then to the press release of Sotheby’s. Resolution time: 20.11.2026 12:00 UTC.