Will 12 or more U.S. states have active bans on prediction markets by September 1, 2026?

VangAI analysis

VangAI estimate: +17% for “Yes”, confidence 80%

• As of June 2026, at least 16 states have attempted to regulate prediction markets, with some enacting bans.
• Minnesota became the first state to prohibit platforms like Kalshi and Polymarket statewide in May 2026.
• Several states, including Nevada and Arizona, have issued cease-and-desist orders against prediction market operators.
• The trend indicates a growing number of states are moving towards banning or heavily regulating prediction markets.

The spread of prediction market bans is like a domino effect, with one state's action prompting others to follow suit.