Will the NFP employment growth in the US for July 2026 exceed 100,000?
Current probability of “Yes”: 50%
- Status
- Closed
- Category
- Economy
- Closing date
- 7 August 2026
- Participants
- 0
VangAI analysis
VangAI estimate: -5% for “No”, confidence 70%
- Forecasts for July 2026 range from 75,000 to 95,000 new jobs, which is below the 100,000 threshold.
- In June 2026, job growth was only 57,000, significantly below expectations.
- The June job decline is partly attributed to temporary factors like World Cup-related changes in hospitality.
- Some economists remain cautiously optimistic, noting stable jobless claims and improved small business hiring plans.
Like a weather forecast predicting rain when the likelihood of sunshine is higher.
Market rules
"Yes" if the nonfarm payroll employment growth in the US for July 2026, as per the first release by BLS, is more than 100,000. "No" if it is 100,000 or less. Only the FIRST release counts; revisions do not reopen the resolution. Source — BLS Employment Situation, release date 08/07/2026 at 12:30 UTC (08:30 ET).