Will the ISM Manufacturing PMI for the USA for July 2026 be above 50?
Current probability of “Yes”: 50%
- Status
- Closed
- Category
- Economy
- Closing date
- 3 August 2026
- Participants
- 0
VangAI analysis
VangAI estimate: +35% for “Yes”, confidence 90%
- Recent increase in the ISM Manufacturing PMI to 54 in May 2026, the highest level in four years.
- Five consecutive months of expansion in the U.S. manufacturing sector since January 2026.
- Decline in China's PMI to 49.2 in July 2026, potentially increasing demand for U.S. goods.
- Expectations of continued growth in the U.S. manufacturing sector despite global economic challenges.
Like an athlete consistently improving their performance despite competition.
Market rules
"Yes" if the ISM Manufacturing PMI index for the USA for July 2026 is officially published by ISM as above 50.0 (growth zone). "No" if 50.0 or below. Source — ISM Manufacturing Report on Business, published on 03.08.2026 at 14:00 UTC (10:00 ET).