Will the annual CPI inflation in the USA for September 2026 be at least 3.5%?

Current probability of “Yes”: 12%

Status
Open
Category
Economy
Closing date
14 October 2026
Participants
1

Market rules

Criterion: 12-month change in the Consumer Price Index CPI-U (all items) for September 2026 in the first release by BLS (Consumer Price Index Summary). Threshold: 3.5% or higher - "Yes"; 3.4% and lower - "No". Benchmark: in August 2026, annual inflation was 3.4%. Publication is scheduled for October 14, 2026. Source: https://www.bls.gov/news.release/cpi.nr0.htm. Edge cases: the value rounded by BLS to one decimal place is taken; subsequent revisions are not considered; if the release is delayed by more than 7 days after October 14, 2026, the market is canceled.

Official resolution source