Will the annual CPI inflation in the USA for September 2026 be at least 3.5%?
Current probability of “Yes”: 12%
- Status
- Settled
- Category
- Economy
- Closing date
- 14 October 2026
- Participants
- 1
- Outcome
- Yes
- Resolution date
- 17 October 2026
VangAI analysis
VangAI edge: +58 pp
- Economists forecast inflation rising to 3.7% in September 2026.
- Consumer inflation expectations for the next year rose to 3.9% in September 2026.
- The Federal Reserve raised the PCE inflation forecast for 2026 to 3.7%.
- Rising energy prices contribute to higher overall inflation.
Like a weather forecast predicting rain when the sky is already overcast.
Market rules
Criterion: 12-month change in the Consumer Price Index CPI-U (all items) for September 2026 in the first release by BLS (Consumer Price Index Summary). Threshold: 3.5% or higher - "Yes"; 3.4% and lower - "No". Benchmark: in August 2026, annual inflation was 3.4%. Publication is scheduled for October 14, 2026. Source: https://www.bls.gov/news.release/cpi.nr0.htm. Edge cases: the value rounded by BLS to one decimal place is taken; subsequent revisions are not considered; if the release is delayed by more than 7 days after October 14, 2026, the market is canceled.