Will the yield on 10-year U.S. bonds exceed 5.10% at the close on October 30, 2026?
Current probability of “Yes”: 88%
- Status
- Settled
- Category
- Economy
- Closing date
- 2 November 2026
- Participants
- 1
- Outcome
- No
- Resolution date
- 4 November 2026
VangAI analysis
VangAI edge: -28 pp
- The yield on 10-year US Treasury bonds decreased from 5.31% on October 5, 2026, to 4.98% on October 29, 2026.
- The Federal Reserve maintained the rate at 3.75%–4.00% during the October 28, 2026, meeting, which may limit further increases in bond yields.
- Inflation remains above the 2% target, which could lead to further tightening of monetary policy and an increase in bond yields.
- Markets anticipate a probability of a rate hike in December 2026 ranging from 73% to 85%, which could affect bond yields.
Like the weather that can change at the last moment, bond yields can fluctuate based on economic data and Federal Reserve decisions.
Market rules
The market resolves to "Yes" if the value of the DGS10 (the yield on U.S. Treasury bonds with a constant maturity of 10 years, Market Yield on U.S. Treasury Securities at 10-Year Constant Maturity) for October 30, 2026, as reported by FRED (Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis), is strictly above 5.10%. A value of exactly 5.10% is "No". If there is no value available on October 30, the last published value prior to this date will be used. Revisions to the data after November 2, 2026, will not be considered. Context at the time of creation: DGS10 = 4.94% as of September 17, 2026 (after the Fed raised the rate to 3.75–4.00% on September 16). If the value is 5.10% or lower, it is "No".