Will the yield on 10-year U.S. bonds exceed 5.10% at the close on October 30, 2026?
Current probability of “Yes”: 88%
- Status
- Open
- Category
- Economy
- Closing date
- 2 November 2026
- Participants
- 1
Market rules
The market resolves to "Yes" if the value of the DGS10 (the yield on U.S. Treasury bonds with a constant maturity of 10 years, Market Yield on U.S. Treasury Securities at 10-Year Constant Maturity) for October 30, 2026, as reported by FRED (Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis), is strictly above 5.10%. A value of exactly 5.10% is "No". If there is no value available on October 30, the last published value prior to this date will be used. Revisions to the data after November 2, 2026, will not be considered. Context at the time of creation: DGS10 = 4.94% as of September 17, 2026 (after the Fed raised the rate to 3.75–4.00% on September 16). If the value is 5.10% or lower, it is "No".