Will the Central Bank of Turkey keep the key rate at 37% in the meeting on September 10, 2026?
Current probability of “Yes”: 50%
- Status
- Resolved
- Category
- Economy
- Closing date
- 10 September 2026
- Participants
- 0
- Outcome
- Yes
- Resolution date
- 12 September 2026
VangAI analysis
VangAI estimate: +30% for “Yes”, confidence 85%
- The Central Bank of Turkey has maintained the key interest rate at 37% since January 2026, despite inflation fluctuations.
- At the last meeting on July 23, 2026, the rate was left unchanged, indicating a tendency towards stability.
- Market and analyst expectations point to maintaining the current rate at the upcoming meeting on September 10, 2026.
- The Central Bank of Turkey states its intention to maintain a tight monetary policy until price stability is achieved.
Like a captain maintaining course for stability in a turbulent sea.
Market rules
"Yes" if following the meeting of the Monetary Policy Committee of the Central Bank of Turkey (TCMB) on September 10, 2026, the key rate (one-week repo) remains at 37.00%. "No" in case of any change (decrease or increase). Source — official MPC decision on the TCMB website. If the meeting is postponed, we will resolve based on the actual date of the decision.