Will the Swiss approve the increase of VAT by 0.4 p.p. to finance the 13th AHV pension in the referendum on November 29, 2026?
Current probability of “Yes”: 88%
- Status
- Open
- Category
- Politics
- Closing date
- 29 November 2026
- Participants
- 1
VangAI analysis
VangAI estimate: +0% for “Yes”, confidence 85%
- A recent survey indicated that 71% of respondents support the 13th AHV pension.
- Parliament approved a 0.4 percentage point VAT increase to fund the 13th AHV pension.
- The Federal Council and Parliament recommend accepting the VAT increase to fund the pension.
- Previous polls showed resistance to VAT increases, but they were conducted before current debates.
As with previous social reforms, public support can lead to adoption.
Market rules
The market will resolve to "Yes" if the Federal Decree of June 19, 2026, on additional financing for AHV through a VAT increase of 0.4 percentage points is adopted (by a double majority of voters and cantons) in the federal referendum in Switzerland on November 29, 2026, according to the official results of the Federal Chancellery of Switzerland (admin.ch). Otherwise, it will resolve to "No". Edge case: if the voting on this proposal is postponed to another date, the market will resolve based on the actual date of the announcement of the official results for this specific proposal.