Will the Swiss approve the increase of VAT by 0.4 p.p. to finance the 13th AHV pension in the referendum on November 29, 2026?
Current probability of “Yes”: 88%
- Status
- Open
- Category
- Politics
- Closing date
- 29 November 2026
- Participants
- 1
VangAI analysis
VangAI edge: -39 pp
- The first SRG poll indicates that 49% of voters oppose the VAT increase.
- Opposition argues that the VAT increase will negatively impact purchasing power and small businesses.
- Some parties advocate for structural reforms, such as raising the retirement age, instead of increasing taxes.
- Funding the 13th pension through a VAT increase may be perceived as unfair, as it affects all consumers, including low-income groups.
Like a highly-rated team unexpectedly losing a match.
Market rules
The market will resolve to "Yes" if the Federal Decree of June 19, 2026, on additional financing for AHV through a VAT increase of 0.4 percentage points is adopted (by a double majority of voters and cantons) in the federal referendum in Switzerland on November 29, 2026, according to the official results of the Federal Chancellery of Switzerland (admin.ch). Otherwise, it will resolve to "No". Edge case: if the voting on this proposal is postponed to another date, the market will resolve based on the actual date of the announcement of the official results for this specific proposal.