Will the food initiative in Switzerland receive more than 35% 'yes' votes on September 27, 2026?
Current probability of “Yes”: 50%
- Status
- Open
- Category
- Politics
- Closing date
- 28 September 2026
- Participants
- 0
VangAI analysis
VangAI estimate: -17% for “No”, confidence 85%
- Recent polls indicate that support for the initiative has dropped to 33%.
- Comparable agricultural initiatives in 2021 received about 39% 'yes' votes but were rejected.
- The Federal Council and Parliament recommend rejecting the initiative.
- Current trends show further decline in support for the initiative.
Just like in 2021, when agricultural initiatives with 39% support were rejected, the current initiative with 33% support is also likely to be rejected.
Market rules
Criterion: the share of 'yes' votes (Ja-Anteil) across Switzerland for the popular initiative ‘Für eine sichere Ernährung – durch Stärkung einer nachhaltigen inländischen Produktion, mehr pflanzliche Lebensmittel und sauberes Trinkwasser (Ernährungsinitiative)’, submitted for federal voting on September 27, 2026.
Threshold: 'Yes' — if the share of 'yes' votes from valid votes nationwide is strictly more than 35.00%. 'No' — if 35.00% or less. The fact of acceptance or rejection of the initiative, as well as the result by cantons (Ständemehr) do not matter. The second initiative submitted on the same day is not considered.
Source: Federal Statistical Office of Switzerland (BFS), federal voting section — https://www.bfs.admin.ch/bfs/de/home/statistiken/politik/abstimmungen.html (national and regional voting results from 27.09.2026).
Verification date: September 28, 2026, 12:00 UTC.
Contextual reference: The Council and Parliament recommend rejecting the initiative; comparable agricultural initiatives from 2021 received about 39% 'yes' votes.
Border cases: (1) if voting on this initiative is canceled, withdrawn, or postponed to another date — outcome 'No'; (2) if only preliminary national results from BFS are published at the time of verification, those are used; (3) subsequent clarifications of official data will consider the value published before 12:00 UTC on September 28, 2026; (4) in case of delays in publication, the resolution is postponed until the first official publication, but no later than October 31, 2026; (5) the value is taken with precision up to two decimal places, exactly 35.00% is interpreted as 'No'.