Will the voter turnout in the Swedish Riksdag elections on September 13, 2026 exceed 84%?
Current probability of “Yes”: 50%
- Status
- Closed
- Category
- Politics
- Closing date
- 21 September 2026
- Participants
- 0
VangAI analysis
VangAI edge: -40 pp
- Historically high voter turnout in Riksdag elections decreased from 87.18% in 2018 to 84.21% in 2022.
- In the elections on September 13, 2026, voter turnout was 80.4%, significantly below the 84% threshold.
- Current trends indicate a decline in voter turnout in Sweden, making it unlikely to exceed 84%.
- Preliminary results of the 2026 elections confirm a decrease in turnout, reducing the likelihood of exceeding the 84% threshold.
It's like a team that usually wins starting to lose, making expectations of victory unrealistic.
Market rules
Criterion: the final voter turnout (valdeltagande) in the Swedish Riksdag elections, voting day — September 13, 2026.
Threshold: “Yes” — if according to the Swedish Election Authority (Valmyndigheten), the turnout in the Riksdag elections is strictly more than 84.00%. “No” — if 84.00% or less. Only the turnout in the Riksdag elections is considered (not in regional and municipal assemblies).
Source: Valmyndigheten, results page — https://www.val.se/valresultat-och-statistik/riksdags--region--och-kommunval/valresultat-2026
Verification date: September 21, 2026, 12:00 UTC (according to Valmyndigheten, the final result is expected on the weekend after the voting day).
Context reference: turnout in 2022 — 84.21%, in 2018 — 87.18%.
Border cases: (1) if at the time of verification only preliminary data is published, the last officially published Valmyndigheten turnout value is used; (2) if the final value is revised before 12:00 UTC on September 21, 2026 — the revised takes precedence; late clarifications do not change the outcome; (3) if there is a delay in publication, the resolution is postponed until the first official publication, but no later than October 20, 2026; (4) the value is taken up to two decimal places, exactly 84.00% is treated as “No”; (5) if the voting on September 13, 2026 does not take place — the outcome is “No”.