Will the ruling coalition Tidö retain a majority of seats in the Riksdag in the elections in Sweden on September 13, 2026?
Current probability of “Yes”: 88%
- Status
- Closed
- Category
- Politics
- Closing date
- 20 September 2026
- Participants
- 1
VangAI analysis
VangAI estimate: -83% for “No”, confidence 95%
- Preliminary election results show that the center-left bloc secured 176 seats, achieving a majority.
- The ruling right-wing bloc obtained 173 seats, falling short of the required majority.
- Final results are expected in the coming days, but it is unlikely they will alter the current balance of power.
- The decline in support for the Sweden Democrats party weakened the ruling bloc.
It's like a team considered a favorite losing a match due to an unexpected turn of events.
Market rules
The market will resolve to "Yes" if, according to the official results of the parliamentary elections in Sweden on September 13, 2026, the four parties of the ruling coalition "Tidö" (Moderate Party, Sweden Democrats, Christian Democrats, Liberals) receive a total of at least 175 out of 349 seats in the Riksdag according to the official data from the Swedish Election Authority (Valmyndigheten, val.se). Otherwise, it will be "No". The borderline case: the final officially confirmed result from Valmyndigheten after the completion of the vote recount will be considered, not the preliminary data from election night.