Will Strategy's (Michael Saylor) Bitcoin reserves exceed 870,000 BTC by October 15, 2026?
Current probability of “Yes”: 88%
- Status
- Open
- Category
- Crypto
- Closing date
- 16 October 2026
- Participants
- 1
VangAI analysis
VangAI estimate: +7% for “Yes”, confidence 90%
- The company's strategy of aggressive Bitcoin accumulation since 2020.
- The current Bitcoin reserves amount to 845,050 BTC as of September 3, 2026.
- Historical trend of increasing reserves, including the acquisition of 149,880 BTC in November 2024.
- Financial strategies such as issuing convertible bonds and shares to finance Bitcoin purchases.
Like an athlete who consistently increases their training load to reach new heights.
Market rules
The market resolves to "Yes" if the total Bitcoin reserves of Strategy (ticker MSTR) reach or exceed 870,000 BTC according to the official company tracker (https://www.strategy.com/bitcoin) on October 15, 2026 (23:59 UTC). As of September 3, 2026, the reserves were 845,050 BTC. If the official tracker is unavailable, data from the aggregator bitcointreasuries.net (Strategy section) on the same date will be used. If there are no updates within 72 hours after the resolution date, the last published value as of the resolution date will be used.