Will Strategy's (Michael Saylor) Bitcoin reserves exceed 870,000 BTC by October 15, 2026?
Current probability of “Yes”: 88%
- Status
- Settled
- Category
- Crypto
- Closing date
- 16 October 2026
- Participants
- 1
- Outcome
- No
- Resolution date
- 17 October 2026
VangAI analysis
VangAI edge: +7 pp
- Strategy is actively increasing its Bitcoin reserves, reaching 848,250 BTC as of October 11, 2026.
- The company continues to purchase Bitcoin, despite a slowdown in acquisition pace in recent weeks.
- The company's financial resources allow it to continue Bitcoin purchases, despite significant expenditures on stock buybacks.
- The Bitcoin market remains stable, supporting the company's strategy of accumulating digital assets.
Like a marathon runner confidently approaching the finish line.
Market rules
The market resolves to "Yes" if the total Bitcoin reserves of Strategy (ticker MSTR) reach or exceed 870,000 BTC according to the official company tracker (https://www.strategy.com/bitcoin) on October 15, 2026 (23:59 UTC). As of September 3, 2026, the reserves were 845,050 BTC. If the official tracker is unavailable, data from the aggregator bitcointreasuries.net (Strategy section) on the same date will be used. If there are no updates within 72 hours after the resolution date, the last published value as of the resolution date will be used.