Will SpaceX catch the Starship vehicle with the tower on the 14th flight?
Current probability of “Yes”: 88%
- Status
- Open
- Category
- Science
- Closing date
- 12 October 2026
- Participants
- 1
VangAI analysis
VangAI estimate: -83% for “No”, confidence 90%
- SpaceX has postponed the attempt to catch Starship with the tower on the 14th flight by several months.
- The 14th Starship flight is scheduled for September 22, 2026, without a tower catch attempt.
- The tower catch attempt is now expected in late 2026 or early 2027.
- If the flight does not occur by October 12, 2026, the outcome will be 'No'.
It's like a team announcing a game postponement, yet bets on their victory for the original date remain high.
Market rules
"Yes" if during the 14th test orbital flight of the Starship (Flight 14), SpaceX successfully catches the returning vehicle (the upper stage Ship) with the tower mechanisms ("chopsticks"/Mechazilla) by 23:59 UTC on October 12, 2026. An attempt that results in the loss of the vehicle, landing in the ocean, or damage during the catch is counted as "No". If the flight does not occur by this date — "No".