Will SpaceX catch the Starship vehicle with the tower on the 14th flight?
Current probability of “Yes”: 88%
- Status
- Settled
- Category
- Science
- Closing date
- 12 October 2026
- Participants
- 1
- Outcome
- No
- Resolution date
- 14 October 2026
VangAI analysis
VangAI edge: -88 pp
- SpaceX does not plan to attempt catching the Starship with the tower on the 14th flight.
- The 14th Starship flight already took place on September 28, 2026, without a catch attempt.
- SpaceX postponed the tower catch attempt to later flights.
It's like betting on a game that's already over.
Market rules
"Yes" if during the 14th test orbital flight of the Starship (Flight 14), SpaceX successfully catches the returning vehicle (the upper stage Ship) with the tower mechanisms ("chopsticks"/Mechazilla) by 23:59 UTC on October 12, 2026. An attempt that results in the loss of the vehicle, landing in the ocean, or damage during the catch is counted as "No". If the flight does not occur by this date — "No".