Will Spain reach the final of the 2026 World Cup after the semifinal against France?
Current probability of “Yes”: 59%
- Status
- Settled
- Category
- Entertainment
- Closing date
- 15 July 2026
- Participants
- 1
- Outcome
- Yes
- Resolution date
- 15 July 2026
VangAI analysis
VangAI estimate: -21% for “No”, confidence 85%
- Bookmaker odds suggest Spain's win probability is approximately 29.28%.
- France has won all their matches in the 2026 World Cup, conceding only one goal.
- Spain has a 36-match unbeaten streak, including a victory over France in the Euro 2024 semifinals.
- Predictive models give France a 60% chance to advance to the final, Spain 41%.
Betting on Spain at 62% probability is like overestimating an underdog's chances against a favorite.
Market rules
"Yes," if according to the official match protocol of FIFA, the Spanish national team wins in the semifinal of the 2026 World Cup against France (July 14, Dallas Stadium; kickoff 19:00 UTC) in regular time, extra time, or by penalty shootout and advances to the final. Otherwise — "No." At the time of the question: the match has not been played.