Will SpaceX's valuation exceed $1 trillion in a new deal by December 31, 2026?
Current probability of “Yes”: 12%
- Status
- Open
- Category
- Business
- Closing date
- 1 January 2027
- Participants
- 1
VangAI analysis
VangAI estimate: +83% for “Yes”, confidence 90%
- SpaceX has already reached a valuation of $1.8 trillion in June 2026.
- The company regularly conducts tender offers, making it likely to close a new deal by the end of 2026.
- The market underestimates the likelihood of closing a deal with a valuation above $1 trillion by December 31, 2026.
- The historical growth of SpaceX's valuation indicates a high likelihood of further deals with higher valuations.
Like a rocket that has already reached orbit, SpaceX is poised for the next stage of growth.
Market rules
The market is resolved as "Yes" if SpaceX closes a new deal (tender offer or funding round) with a valuation exceeding $1 trillion (post-money) by December 31, 2026, inclusive, according to confirmed reports from major publications or private market aggregators (Bloomberg, Reuters, CNBC, Forge Global — https://forgeglobal.com/insights/spacex-upcoming-ipo-news/). The baseline is a valuation of $800 billion following the tender offer for shares in December 2025. Only confirmed closed deals count; announced but not completed negotiations do not count.