Will SpaceX's valuation exceed $1 trillion in a new deal by December 31, 2026?
Current probability of “Yes”: 12%
- Status
- Open
- Category
- Business
- Closing date
- 1 January 2027
- Participants
- 1
VangAI analysis
VangAI edge: +83 pp
- SpaceX has already reached a valuation of $1.25 trillion after merging with xAI in February 2026.
- The company plans an IPO with a valuation around $1.75 trillion, confirming its increasing worth.
- The merger with xAI and plans to manufacture its own GPUs indicate strategic expansion and diversification.
- The market underestimates the likelihood of closing a deal with a valuation above $1 trillion by the end of 2026.
It's like underestimating the chance of rain when the sky is already overcast.
Market rules
The market is resolved as "Yes" if SpaceX closes a new deal (tender offer or funding round) with a valuation exceeding $1 trillion (post-money) by December 31, 2026, inclusive, according to confirmed reports from major publications or private market aggregators (Bloomberg, Reuters, CNBC, Forge Global — https://forgeglobal.com/insights/spacex-upcoming-ipo-news/). The baseline is a valuation of $800 billion following the tender offer for shares in December 2025. Only confirmed closed deals count; announced but not completed negotiations do not count.