Will SpaceX launch Starship Block 3 into orbital flight by the end of 2026?
Current probability of “Yes”: 53%
- Status
- Open
- Category
- Business
- Closing date
- 1 January 2027
- Participants
- 1
VangAI analysis
VangAI edge: +22 pp
- Successful orbital flight of Starship V3 on September 28, 2026.
- Scheduled Starship Block 3 flights in November and December 2026.
- Successful testing of Starship V3 components, including static fire tests and cryogenic tests.
- SpaceX's plans to increase Starship launch frequency to support Starlink and Artemis missions.
Like a train that has successfully completed test runs and is now ready for regular service.
Market rules
Resolved YES if SpaceX publicly confirms the successful orbital flight of Starship Block 3 by December 31, 2026 inclusive.
Official resolution source: spacex.com/launches