Will the SpaceX Crew-13 mission to the ISS launch before October 15, 2026?
Current probability of “Yes”: 12%
- Status
- Settled
- Category
- Science
- Closing date
- 16 October 2026
- Participants
- 1
- Outcome
- Yes
- Resolution date
- 17 October 2026
VangAI analysis
VangAI edge: +88 pp
- The SpaceX Crew-13 mission successfully launched on October 1, 2026.
- The launch occurred two weeks before the October 15, 2026 deadline.
- The Crew Dragon capsule successfully docked with the ISS less than 8 hours after launch.
- All planned mission stages were completed without deviations.
Like a train arriving at the station ahead of schedule.
Market rules
Criterion: the actual launch (liftoff from the launch pad) of the Falcon 9 rocket with the Crew Dragon spacecraft as part of the Crew-13 mission to the ISS. "Yes" — if the launch occurs no later than October 15, 2026, 23:59 UTC; "No" — if the launch is later than this date or canceled. Source: NASA blog about the space station (nasa.gov/blogs/spacestation), additionally — SpaceX Crew-13 page on Wikipedia. Guideline: the initial launch date of September 12, 2026, was postponed due to a propellant leak in the Dragon's propulsion system; reports state the new target is early October. Edge cases: a launch attempt that ends in a cancellation before liftoff is not considered a launch; the time of liftoff in UTC is taken for the date.