Will SpaceX complete at least 10 orbital launches of Falcon 9 in June 2026?
Current probability of “Yes”: 82%
- Status
- Settled
- Category
- Science
- Closing date
- 30 June 2026
- Participants
- 1
- Outcome
- Yes
- Resolution date
- 15 July 2026
VangAI analysis
VangAI estimate: +13% for “Yes”, confidence 90%
- SpaceX has already conducted 67 Falcon 9 launches in 2026, averaging over 10 launches per month.
- At least 7 Falcon 9 launches are scheduled for June 2026, with potential for additional missions.
- SpaceX has a history of conducting over 150 Falcon 9 launches annually, demonstrating the capability to maintain a high launch cadence.
Like an experienced runner regularly completing marathons, SpaceX demonstrates the ability to maintain a high launch cadence.
Market rules
Resolution is Yes if the official SpaceX page shows that the number of successful orbital launches of Falcon 9 with a date in June 2026 is at least 10 by the end of June 30, 2026 UTC.