Will 'Spa Weekend' gross at least $6 million in its debut weekend in the USA?
Current probability of “Yes”: 50%
- Status
- Resolved
- Category
- Business
- Closing date
- 25 August 2026
- Participants
- 0
- Outcome
- No
- Resolution date
- 26 August 2026
VangAI analysis
VangAI estimate: -50% for “No”, confidence 100%
- The film 'Spa Weekend' grossed $3,034,000 in its opening weekend, significantly below the $6,000,000 threshold.
- Pre-release forecasts estimated earnings between $3–5 million, below the threshold.
- The film was released in 2,009 theaters, a moderate number for a wide release.
- The R-rated comedy genre may limit the audience, especially during the summer season.
Like an athlete expected to podium finishing in the middle of the pack.
Market rules
Criterion: the box office earnings of the comedy 'Spa Weekend' (Black Bear, wide release on August 21, 2026) in the USA and Canada for the debut weekend August 21–23, 2026 (Friday–Sunday, excluding previews and Monday).
Numerical threshold: $6,000,000 or more. Benchmark: forecast range from Boxoffice Pro as of July 31, 2026 — $5–7 million; the threshold is taken from the middle of this range.
Source: Box Office Mojo, chart Domestic 2026 Weekend 34 — https://www.boxofficemojo.com/weekend/2026W34/ (as of August 3, 2026 the page shows 'No data available').
Yes — if the Weekend gross value for 'Spa Weekend' in this chart is at least $6,000,000.
No — if the value is less than $6,000,000, or if the film is not present in this weekend's chart (including if the release is postponed).
Resolution date: August 25, 2026, 20:00 UTC.
Edge cases: if only preliminary estimates (Weekend Estimates) are published at the time of resolution, the resolution is based on them; in case of delays in publication, a wait until September 1, 2026, is allowed. Upon subsequent revisions of Box Office Mojo data, the final value (actuals) available on September 1, 2026, at 12:00 UTC is taken into account. Earnings outside the USA and Canada are not considered.