Will the launch of the Roman telescope take place before August 31, 2026?
Current probability of “Yes”: 46%
- Status
- Settled
- Category
- Science
- Closing date
- 1 September 2026
- Participants
- 1
- Outcome
- Yes
- Resolution date
- 4 September 2026
VangAI analysis
VangAI estimate: +54% for “Yes”, confidence 100%
- Successful launch of the Roman Telescope on a Falcon Heavy rocket on August 30, 2026.
- Launch confirmation from NASA and SpaceX.
- Current date is August 31, 2026, after the scheduled date.
- No reports of delays or cancellations.
Like a train arriving at the station on time.
Market rules
Yes = successful liftoff of Falcon Heavy with Roman by 31.08.2026 inclusive. No = postponement/cancellation. Source — NASA/SpaceX.