Will 'Shrek 5' collect at least $150 million in its opening weekend in the USA?

Current probability of “Yes”: 88%

Status
Open
Category
Entertainment
Closing date
6 July 2027
Participants
1

VangAI analysis

VangAI estimate: -13% for “No”, confidence 80%

  • Historical box office data shows that only 'Shrek 2' and 'Shrek the Third' exceeded $150 million in their opening weekends.

Similar to previous franchise films, the success of 'Shrek 5' depends on audience interest and box office competition.

Market rules

The market resolves to 'Yes' if the opening weekend grosses (from Friday to Sunday, actual, not estimated) of the animated movie 'Shrek 5' (Shrek 5) in the USA and Canada are $150 million or more, according to data from Box Office Mojo (https://www.boxofficemojo.com). With a confirmed release date of June 30, 2027, the resolution occurs based on the results of the first full weekend of release. If the release is postponed or canceled to a date later than July 6, 2027, the market resolves to 'No'.

Official resolution source