Will early parliamentary elections in Serbia be officially scheduled by September 15, 2026?
Current probability of “Yes”: 50%
- Status
- Resolved
- Category
- Politics
- Closing date
- 16 September 2026
- Participants
- 0
- Outcome
- Yes
- Resolution date
- 17 September 2026
VangAI analysis
VangAI estimate: +50% for “Yes”, confidence 100%
- Serbian President Aleksandar Vučić signed a decree dissolving parliament and scheduling early elections for October 25, 2026.
- The decree was signed on September 9, 2026, as confirmed by official sources.
- The Republic Electoral Commission of Serbia published the relevant information on its website.
- The election was scheduled before September 15, 2026, meeting the conditions for outcome 'Yes'.
It's like a match being officially announced before the deadline.
Market rules
Criterion: official scheduling of early elections for members of the National Assembly of the Republic of Serbia.
Date threshold: "Yes" - if the act on scheduling early parliamentary elections is issued no later than September 15, 2026 inclusive (Belgrade time) and this is confirmed by the materials of the Republic Electoral Commission of Serbia. "No" - if there is no such act by this deadline. Only elections for members of the National Assembly are counted; local, presidential, and elections for national minority councils are not counted.
Source: Republic Electoral Commission of Serbia, activity and announcements section - https://www.rik.parlament.gov.rs/vesti/716
Verification date: September 16, 2026, 12:00 UTC.
Status as of August 3, 2026: elections not scheduled; the last record on the REC page is dated July 10, 2026.
Border cases: (1) if the act is issued on September 15, 2026, but the REC publication appears later - the date of the act's issuance is counted; (2) if the act is issued before September 15, but then canceled or amended - the outcome remains "Yes"; (3) in case of delayed publication of REC materials, the resolution is postponed until the first official publication, but not later than September 30, 2026; (4) the actual date of voting does not affect the outcome - only the fact and date of scheduling the elections matter.