Will the National Bank of Serbia maintain the rate of 5.75% at the August 2026 meeting?
Current probability of “Yes”: 50%
- Status
- Resolved
- Category
- Economy
- Closing date
- 14 August 2026
- Participants
- 0
- Outcome
- Yes
- Resolution date
- 16 August 2026
VangAI analysis
VangAI estimate: +35% for “Yes”, confidence 90%
- The National Bank of Serbia has maintained the key interest rate at 5.75% since September 2024, indicating a commitment to stable monetary policy.
- Inflation in Serbia remains within the target range of 3% ± 1.5%, reducing the need for interest rate adjustments.
- Economic growth in Q1 2026 accelerated to 3.2%, supported by the services and agriculture sectors, favoring the maintenance of the current rate.
- The Central Bank of Serbia has expressed concern over geopolitical risks, such as the Middle East conflict and the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, which could impact inflation and growth but have not yet led to a rate change.
Like a ship's captain maintaining course in rough seas, the National Bank of Serbia keeps the rate steady amid global uncertainties.
Market rules
"Yes" if, following the August 2026 meeting of the Executive Board of the National Bank of Serbia (NBS) (tentatively August 13), the key rate is maintained at 5.75%. "No" in the case of any change. Source — official statement from the NBS. It will resolve based on the actual decision from this meeting; if there is no meeting in August, the market will be canceled.