Will Serbia become a member of the EU by January 1, 2030?
Current probability of “Yes”: 38%
- Status
- Open
- Category
- Politics
- Closing date
- 1 January 2030
- Participants
- 2
VangAI analysis
VangAI edge: -13 pp
- Serbia did not support EU sanctions against Russia, causing tension in relations with the EU.
- Serbian President Aleksandar Vučić expressed doubts about the country's ability to join the EU before 2030.
- The Netherlands and other EU countries are blocking the continuation of Serbia's accession negotiations due to insufficient progress in the rule of law.
- Serbia has stated that it will not recognize Kosovo's independence, which is a key condition for EU membership.
It's like trying to pass through a closed door without a key.
Market rules
"Yes" if Serbia has officially become a full member of the European Union with an accession date before January 1, 2030. "No" if as of January 1, 2030, Serbia is not a full member of the EU. Only the fact of full membership is considered; candidate status, the opening or closing of negotiation chapters, and the date of signing the accession treaty do not count as accession. Source - the official website of the European Union (section on member states).