Will Serbia become a member of the EU by January 1, 2030?
Current probability of “Yes”: 38%
- Status
- Open
- Category
- Politics
- Closing date
- 1 January 2030
- Participants
- 2
VangAI analysis
VangAI estimate: -13% for “No”, confidence 80%
- Limited progress in rule of law and democratic reforms.
- Lack of full alignment with EU foreign policy.
- Complex relations with neighboring countries.
- Slow pace of accession negotiations.
Like a student passing exams but not meeting all graduation requirements.
Market rules
"Yes" if Serbia has officially become a full member of the European Union with an accession date before January 1, 2030. "No" if as of January 1, 2030, Serbia is not a full member of the EU. Only the fact of full membership is considered; candidate status, the opening or closing of negotiation chapters, and the date of signing the accession treaty do not count as accession. Source - the official website of the European Union (section on member states).