Will Republicans retain control of the U.S. Senate in 2026?
Current probability of “Yes”: 12%
- Status
- Open
- Category
- Politics
- Closing date
- 10 November 2026
- Participants
- 1
VangAI analysis
VangAI edge: -10 pp
- Democrats gained control of the U.S. Senate following the November 3, 2026 elections.
- Republicans lost seats in traditionally conservative states like Texas and Kansas.
- Pre-election forecasts gave Democrats high chances of winning the Senate.
- Election results were announced quickly, confirming the Democrats' victory.
Betting on Republicans retaining Senate control now is like betting on a horse that has already lost the race.
Market rules
"Yes" if, as a result of the U.S. Senate midterm elections on November 3, 2026, the Republican Party retains a majority of seats (51 or more out of 100), according to the aggregated data on the Wikipedia page "2026 United States Senate elections" as of November 10, 2026. Otherwise, "No". Races that are not definitively determined (recounts, legal disputes) as of the date of the resolution will be considered based on the current candidate leading.