Will the SEC approve the Franklin Templeton spot Solana ETF by November 14, 2026?
Current probability of “Yes”: 88%
- Status
- Open
- Category
- Crypto
- Closing date
- 15 November 2026
- Participants
- 1
VangAI analysis
VangAI edge: -18 pp
- The SEC approved spot Bitcoin ETFs in January 2024, indicating a softening stance towards cryptocurrency products.
- Franklin Templeton filed for a Solana ETF in March 2025, demonstrating major asset managers' interest in Solana-based products.
- The SEC permitted in-kind creations and redemptions for crypto ETPs in July 2025, facilitating operations for such funds.
- However, the SEC may exercise caution regarding new cryptocurrency products, especially those linked to less established assets like Solana.
Just as the weather can change unexpectedly, so too can regulatory decisions be unpredictable.
Market rules
The market resolves to YES if the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) officially approves the listing and trading of the Franklin Templeton spot Solana ETF by November 14, 2026, inclusive. The market resolves to NO if the SEC rejects the application, postpones its decision beyond November 14, 2026, or if no decision is made by that date. As of August 20, 2026, the SEC has postponed its decision on this fund to November 14, 2026. Only the official decision of the SEC (publication in the Federal Register and/or on sec.gov) will be considered — not proposed rules, comments from commentators, or predictions from prediction markets.