Will the SEC approve the Franklin Templeton spot Solana ETF by November 14, 2026?
Current probability of “Yes”: 88%
- Status
- Open
- Category
- Crypto
- Closing date
- 15 November 2026
- Participants
- 1
VangAI analysis
VangAI estimate: +2% for “Yes”, confidence 85%
- The SEC approved spot Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs in 2024, indicating a more favorable stance towards cryptocurrency ETFs.
- Franklin Templeton launched a spot Solana ETF in December 2025, demonstrating their commitment to this product.
- The SEC recently approved trading of tokenized stocks on blockchain platforms, indicating progress in digital asset regulation.
- Bloomberg analysts raised the likelihood of SEC approval for spot Solana ETFs to 90% or higher, reflecting market optimism.
Just as water flows freely after a gate is opened, the SEC's approval of Bitcoin ETFs has paved the way for other cryptocurrency ETFs.
Market rules
The market resolves to YES if the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) officially approves the listing and trading of the Franklin Templeton spot Solana ETF by November 14, 2026, inclusive. The market resolves to NO if the SEC rejects the application, postpones its decision beyond November 14, 2026, or if no decision is made by that date. As of August 20, 2026, the SEC has postponed its decision on this fund to November 14, 2026. Only the official decision of the SEC (publication in the Federal Register and/or on sec.gov) will be considered — not proposed rules, comments from commentators, or predictions from prediction markets.