Will Revolut launch a full-fledged bank in the USA by the end of 2026?
Current probability of “Yes”: 88%
- Status
- Open
- Category
- Business
- Closing date
- 31 December 2026
- Participants
- 1
VangAI analysis
VangAI edge: -23 pp
- Revolut has received conditional approval from the OCC but must meet additional conditions for final approval.
- The company plans to launch the bank in 2027, which is beyond the specified deadline.
- Obtaining final approval may take significant time due to stringent regulatory requirements.
- Historically, the process of obtaining a bank charter in the U.S. for fintech companies has been lengthy and complex.
It's like trying to finish a marathon when you've only just reached the halfway point.
Market rules
"Yes" if Revolut receives the final (non-conditional) OCC charter and announces the launch of banking operations in the USA by 31.12.2026. "No" — if only conditional/not launched. Source — OCC / official Revolut.