Will Revolut launch a full-fledged bank in the USA by the end of 2026?
Current probability of “Yes”: 88%
- Status
- Open
- Category
- Business
- Closing date
- 31 December 2026
- Participants
- 1
VangAI analysis
VangAI estimate: -28% for “No”, confidence 70%
- Revolut has received conditional approval from the OCC, which is a significant step but does not guarantee final approval.
- The company plans to launch the bank in the U.S. in 2027, which is beyond the stipulated deadline of the end of 2026.
- Revolut needs to obtain approval from the FDIC and the Federal Reserve, which can take a significant amount of time.
- Historically, the process of obtaining a full banking charter in the U.S. for fintech companies has been lengthy and complex.
It's like obtaining a building permit: preliminary approval is granted, but final permission requires meeting additional conditions.
Market rules
"Yes" if Revolut receives the final (non-conditional) OCC charter and announces the launch of banking operations in the USA by 31.12.2026. "No" — if only conditional/not launched. Source — OCC / official Revolut.