Will Zak Kreger's 'Resident Evil' earn at least $25 million in its second weekend in the US and Canada?
Current probability of “Yes”: 88%
- Status
- Settled
- Category
- Entertainment
- Closing date
- 29 September 2026
- Participants
- 1
- Outcome
- No
- Resolution date
- 30 September 2026
VangAI analysis
VangAI edge: -23 pp
- The expected second-weekend drop for horror films is around 40%, which would reduce earnings from $60 million to $36 million.
- Some horror films, like 'Sinners' and 'Weapons,' have shown minimal second-weekend drops, indicating potential strong retention.
- Director Zach Cregger has previously achieved success with horror films like 'Weapons,' which may contribute to good audience retention.
- Positive reviews and a high Rotten Tomatoes rating (95%) can contribute to sustained earnings.
Similar to 'Sinners,' strong second-weekend retention is possible but not guaranteed.
Market rules
The market resolves to "Yes" if the domestic (US and Canada) box office for the film "Resident Evil" (2026, dir. Zak Kreger) in its second weekend of release — Friday to Sunday, September 25–27, 2026, three days including evening previews on Friday — amounts to at least $25,000,000 according to Box Office Mojo (if unavailable, then The Numbers). Actuals published no later than September 29, 2026, will be used; if only studio estimates are available at the time of verification, those will be used. Exactly $25.0 million is counted as "Yes". The box office for the first weekend (September 18–20): $60 million. International box office and weekday earnings are not considered. If the box office is less than $25,000,000 — "No".