Will 'Resident Evil' gross at least $50 million on its opening weekend in the USA?
Current probability of “Yes”: 50%
- Status
- Open
- Category
- Entertainment
- Closing date
- 22 September 2026
- Participants
- 0
VangAI analysis
VangAI estimate: +45% for “Yes”, confidence 90%
- The 'Resident Evil' film grossed $26.3 million on its first day, including $8.8 million from Thursday previews.
- Sony projects a three-day weekend gross between $53 and $55 million, with some estimates reaching $60 million.
- The film received 96% from critics and 90% from audiences on Rotten Tomatoes, indicating positive reception.
- The previous franchise record for opening weekend gross was $26.6 million, significantly lower than current projections.
Like a rocket already halfway to orbit, the 'Resident Evil' film is confidently heading towards record-breaking grosses.
Market rules
Yes — if Box Office Mojo on the Resident Evil (2026) page (https://www.boxofficemojo.com/title/tt35538033/) indicates Domestic Opening Weekend (3 days, Fri–Sun, September 18–20, 2026) of at least $50,000,000. No — if the value is less than $50,000,000.
The final (actuals) figure from the "Domestic Opening" block on the specified page as of September 22, 2026, 20:00 UTC will be taken into account; preliminary studio estimates for the weekend are not considered.
Edge cases: (1) if the release is postponed and the film has not been widely released in the USA by September 20, 2026, inclusive — result is “No”; (2) if Box Office Mojo has not updated the data by September 22, 2026, 20:00 UTC — the first published Domestic Opening value within the next 72 hours will be taken; (3) preview/Thursday earnings are only considered if they are included by Box Office Mojo in the Opening Weekend figure.