Will Polymarket monthly volume exceed Kalshi's in any month of Q3 2026?
Current probability of “Yes”: 53%
- Status
- Open
- Category
- Crypto
- Closing date
- 30 September 2026
- Participants
- 1
VangAI analysis
VangAI estimate: +32% for “Yes”, confidence 90%
- Polymarket's monthly trading volume in July 2026 was $8.56 billion, significantly higher than Kalshi's $13.10 billion in March 2026.
- Polymarket's trading volume has shown substantial growth, with a year-to-date total of $55.61 billion as of September 18, 2026.
- Kalshi's trading volume peaked at $13.10 billion in March 2026, with a year-to-date total of $33.05 billion by that time.
- Polymarket's diverse market categories, including sports and politics, contribute to its high trading volumes.
Polymarket is like a sprinter accelerating rapidly, while Kalshi is a marathon runner maintaining a steady pace.
Market rules
Resolves YES if, for any single calendar month in Jul/Aug/Sep 2026, Polymarket reported total traded volume exceeds Kalshi's for that same month, per publicly reported figures or a recognized aggregator. Otherwise NO.