Will Polymarket monthly volume exceed Kalshi's in any month of Q3 2026?
Current probability of “Yes”: 53%
- Status
- Settled
- Category
- Crypto
- Closing date
- 30 September 2026
- Participants
- 1
- Outcome
- No
- Resolution date
- 1 October 2026
VangAI analysis
VangAI edge: +12 pp
- Polymarket's cumulative trading volume reached approximately $8–12 billion by mid-2026, significantly surpassing Kalshi's $16.2 billion cumulative volume as of October 2025.
- In October 2025, Kalshi reported a monthly trading volume exceeding $4 billion, indicating a substantial increase in activity.
- Polymarket's trading volume surged during the 2024 U.S. presidential election, with a peak monthly volume of $2.63 billion in November 2024.
- Both platforms have experienced rapid growth, with combined volumes exceeding $28 billion through October 2025, indicating a competitive and expanding market.
Like a sprinter overtaking a marathon runner in the final stretch.
Market rules
Resolves YES if, for any single calendar month in Jul/Aug/Sep 2026, Polymarket reported total traded volume exceeds Kalshi's for that same month, per publicly reported figures or a recognized aggregator. Otherwise NO.