Will OpenAI publish a public S-1 form on SEC EDGAR by December 31, 2026?
Current probability of “Yes”: 88%
- Status
- Open
- Category
- Business
- Closing date
- 31 December 2026
- Participants
- 1
VangAI analysis
VangAI edge: -23 pp
- OpenAI filed a confidential S-1 in June 2026, indicating an intention to go public.
- The company stated it has not decided on IPO timing, which could lead to delays.
- Media reports suggest a potential listing in 2027, beyond the market's timeframe.
- A confidential filing does not guarantee a public offering by the end of 2026.
It's like booking a flight ticket without confirming the departure date.
Market rules
The market resolves to "Yes" if, between the creation of the market and 23:59 UTC on December 31, 2026, a registration statement on Form S-1 (or S-1/A) from OpenAI or its successor/holding structure (e.g., OpenAI Group PBC) is publicly available on SEC EDGAR, filed in connection with an IPO. A confidential draft submission (DRS) that is not publicly available on EDGAR does not count; the public release of a previously confidential draft on EDGAR as an S-1 is counted. Public rumors and media reports about a "planned" flip without documentation on EDGAR do not count. Context at the time of creation: OpenAI filed a confidential draft application on June 8, 2026, the public S-1 has not been published, and the media reports a focus on a listing in 2027. If there is no public S-1 on EDGAR — "No".