Will the 2026 Nobel Prize in Physics be awarded for research in quantum technologies?
Current probability of “Yes”: 86%
- Status
- Settled
- Category
- Science
- Closing date
- 6 October 2026
- Participants
- 3
- Outcome
- No
- Resolution date
- 7 October 2026
VangAI analysis
VangAI edge: -21 pp
- The 2025 Nobel Prize in Physics was awarded for discoveries in quantum mechanics.
- Predictions for 2026 suggest a possible award in condensed matter or particle physics.
- The 2026 Kavli Prize was awarded for discoveries in astrophysics, nanoscience, and neuroscience, without mention of quantum technologies.
- Predictions for 2026 suggest a possible award in artificial intelligence and machine learning.
It's like awarding the prize for the same research area two years in a row.
Market rules
The market is resolved as "Yes" if the official press release from the Nobel Committee for Physics for 2026, published on October 6, 2026, explicitly includes the root "quant-" / "quantum" (quantum computing, quantum optics, quantum materials, or quantum effects), according to the official website (https://www.nobelprize.org/prizes/physics/2026/). If the announcement is postponed, resolution occurs based on the actual announcement date, but no later than October 31, 2026.