Will the Nobel Peace Prize for 2026 be awarded to an organization rather than just individuals?
Current probability of “Yes”: 88%
- Status
- Settled
- Category
- Politics
- Closing date
- 9 October 2026
- Participants
- 1
- Outcome
- No
- Resolution date
- 10 October 2026
VangAI analysis
VangAI edge: -23 pp
- Historically, organizations have received the Nobel Peace Prize in approximately 26% of cases.
- In recent years, there has been a trend towards awarding individuals, as seen in 2025 when María Corina Machado was the laureate.
- However, in 2024, the prize was awarded to the organization Nihon Hidankyo, indicating the possibility of organizations being honored.
- The lack of information about the 2026 nominations makes precise forecasting challenging.
Like in a dice game, where the probability of rolling a specific number depends on previous rolls.
Market rules
The market resolves to "Yes" if in the announcement by the Norwegian Nobel Committee on October 9, 2026 (scheduled for 11:00 AM Central European Summer Time) at least one of the laureates of the Nobel Peace Prize for 2026 mentions an organization or institution (for example, a UN agency, NGO, international movement), including in the case of a joint award to both an organization and an individual. If all laureates are individuals, then "No". If the prize is not awarded in 2026, then "No". Confirmation: the official prize page on nobelprize.org and the press release from the Nobel Committee. If the announcement is postponed, the market's deadline shifts to the date of the actual announcement, but no later than October 31, 2026.