Will the Nobel Prize in Literature 2026 be awarded to a woman?

Current probability of “Yes”: 88%

Status
Open
Category
Entertainment
Closing date
8 October 2026
Participants
1

Market rules

The market is resolved "Yes" if at least one woman is among the laureates of the Nobel Prize in Literature 2026, announced by the Swedish Academy on October 8, 2026 (including in the case of a shared prize). If all announced laureates are men, the market is resolved "No". Source - official announcement on nobelprize.org (Literature section). If the announcement is postponed beyond October 9, 2026, or the prize is not awarded this year, the market is canceled.

Official resolution source