Will the Nobel Prize in Literature 2026 be awarded to a woman?
Current probability of “Yes”: 88%
- Status
- Settled
- Category
- Entertainment
- Closing date
- 8 October 2026
- Participants
- 1
- Outcome
- Yes
- Resolution date
- 10 October 2026
VangAI analysis
VangAI edge: -23 pp
- Historically, women have comprised only 14.8% of Nobel Prize in Literature laureates.
- Recent years have seen a trend towards more frequent awarding of the prize to women, including laureates in 2022 and 2024.
- Despite this trend, men still dominate among laureates, and the likelihood of a woman receiving the prize in 2026 remains uncertain.
- The current market probability of 88% may be overestimated, considering historical data and persistent gender disparities.
It's like betting on a team with a historically low win percentage, despite recent improvements.
Market rules
The market is resolved "Yes" if at least one woman is among the laureates of the Nobel Prize in Literature 2026, announced by the Swedish Academy on October 8, 2026 (including in the case of a shared prize). If all announced laureates are men, the market is resolved "No". Source - official announcement on nobelprize.org (Literature section). If the announcement is postponed beyond October 9, 2026, or the prize is not awarded this year, the market is canceled.