Will the Nobel Prize in Literature 2026 be awarded to a woman?
Current probability of “Yes”: 88%
- Status
- Open
- Category
- Entertainment
- Closing date
- 8 October 2026
- Participants
- 1
Market rules
The market is resolved "Yes" if at least one woman is among the laureates of the Nobel Prize in Literature 2026, announced by the Swedish Academy on October 8, 2026 (including in the case of a shared prize). If all announced laureates are men, the market is resolved "No". Source - official announcement on nobelprize.org (Literature section). If the announcement is postponed beyond October 9, 2026, or the prize is not awarded this year, the market is canceled.