Will Nebius's ARR exceed $6 billion by the end of Q3 2026?
Current probability of “Yes”: 88%
- Status
- Open
- Category
- Business
- Closing date
- 15 November 2026
- Participants
- 1
VangAI analysis
VangAI estimate: +7% for “Yes”, confidence 90%
- Nebius has secured multi-billion dollar contracts with companies like Microsoft and Meta, ensuring substantial future revenue.
- The company has demonstrated rapid revenue growth, increasing it by 454% year-over-year in Q2 2026.
- Nebius has raised its contracted power target to over 5 GW by the end of 2026, indicating significant infrastructure expansion.
- The company's management has reaffirmed its 2026 guidance with an expected ARR of $7 to $9 billion.
It's like a rocket that's already in orbit and continues to gain altitude.
Market rules
"Yes" if Nebius Group announces an Annualized Run-Rate (ARR) figure above $6,000,000,000 in an official press release by the end of Q3 2026 (the quarter ending September 30, 2026; for comparison, the ARR for Q2 2026 was $3.0 billion). Otherwise - "No". If the report is not published by the resolution date, the date is moved to the actual publication date, but no more than 14 days.