Will Nebius's ARR exceed $6 billion by the end of Q3 2026?
Current probability of “Yes”: 88%
- Status
- Open
- Category
- Business
- Closing date
- 15 November 2026
- Participants
- 1
VangAI analysis
VangAI edge: +7 pp
- Nebius secured a five-year contract with Meta worth up to $27 billion, significantly boosting expected ARR.
- Nebius's revenue in the latest quarter increased by 454% year-over-year, reaching $582 million, indicating rapid growth.
- The company received a $2 billion investment from Nvidia, ensuring priority access to future capacity and supporting growth.
- Nebius plans to increase total capacity to 2.5 GW by the end of 2026, indicating large-scale expansion plans.
It's like a company securing a major contract and receiving substantial investment, making the achievement of the target revenue highly probable.
Market rules
"Yes" if Nebius Group announces an Annualized Run-Rate (ARR) figure above $6,000,000,000 in an official press release by the end of Q3 2026 (the quarter ending September 30, 2026; for comparison, the ARR for Q2 2026 was $3.0 billion). Otherwise - "No". If the report is not published by the resolution date, the date is moved to the actual publication date, but no more than 14 days.