Will Greta Gerwig's 'Narnia' collect ≥ $50 million in its first three days at the box office in the USA and Canada?
Current probability of “Yes”: 12%
- Status
- Open
- Category
- Entertainment
- Closing date
- 17 February 2027
- Participants
- 1
VangAI analysis
VangAI edge: +23 pp
- Netflix is releasing a film with a full theatrical window for the first time, which could boost box office revenue.
- Director Greta Gerwig is known for successful films like 'Barbie,' which may attract audiences.
- The 'Chronicles of Narnia' franchise has a dedicated fan base, which could contribute to high earnings.
- The film is releasing over the Valentine's Day weekend, which traditionally boosts theater attendance.
Just as Greta Gerwig's 'Barbie' exceeded expectations, her 'Narnia' could surpass box office projections.
Market rules
Yes, if according to Box Office Mojo the box office collection of the film 'Narnia: The Magician’s Nephew' (Netflix) in the USA and Canada for the 3-day weekend of February 12-14, 2027, amounts to at least $50,000,000. IMAX previews from February 10-11 are counted if Box Office Mojo includes them in the weekend total (as is typically the case for previews). Box office figures for Monday, February 15 (Presidents’ Day) are not considered. Otherwise, No. The page for the weekend of February 12-14, 2027 (actuals, if published, otherwise estimates) is used at the time of resolution on February 17, 2027, 18:00 UTC. If Netflix does not disclose the box office figures and Box Office Mojo does not publish a number, data from Deadline/Variety referencing the distributor will be used; if the figures are nowhere to be found — No. If the wide release in the USA is postponed to another date — No.