Will the single Morgan Wallen "Been By Now" top the Billboard Hot 100 chart by the end of October 2026?
Current probability of “Yes”: 50%
- Status
- Open
- Category
- Entertainment
- Closing date
- 3 November 2026
- Participants
- 0
VangAI analysis
VangAI estimate: +10% for “Yes”, confidence 70%
- Debut at No. 2 on Billboard Hot 100
- Strong fan base and previous successes
- Current chart leader may lose position
- Song is actively promoted
Like a rocket poised to reach orbit
Market rules
"Yes" — if the single "Been By Now" (Morgan Wallen) ranks 1st on the Billboard Hot 100 chart in at least one issue dated from August 15, 2026, to October 31, 2026, inclusive (source: billboard.com/charts/hot-100). The current level at the time of market creation: debuting at 2nd place in the chart dated August 8, 2026; 1st place is held by "Choosin' Texas" (Ella Langley). If the song's peak during the specified period is 2nd place or lower, the outcome is "No". Edge cases: remixes and alternative versions are counted only if Billboard consolidates them under the same chart line; achieving 1st place in related charts (Hot Country Songs, Global 200, Streaming Songs) does not count; in case of publication delays, the first official version of the relevant chart is taken; subsequent recalculations and corrections by Billboard up to the resolution date are considered.