Will the single Morgan Wallen "Been By Now" top the Billboard Hot 100 chart by the end of October 2026?
Current probability of “Yes”: 50%
- Status
- Resolved
- Category
- Entertainment
- Closing date
- 3 November 2026
- Participants
- 0
- Outcome
- No
- Resolution date
- 4 November 2026
VangAI analysis
VangAI edge: -50 pp
- The song 'Been By Now' debuted at No. 2 on the Billboard Hot 100 chart dated August 8, 2026, and has not reached No. 1 since.
- As of October 24, 2026, 'Been By Now' was at No. 4 on the Billboard Hot 100 chart, indicating a decline in its popularity.
- The period during which the song needed to reach No. 1 (August 15, 2026 – October 31, 2026) has ended without achieving this goal.
- Other songs, such as Ella Langley's 'Choosin' Texas' and Taylor Swift's 'Patient Zero,' dominated the No. 1 position during this period.
It's like trying to win a race after the finish line has already been crossed.
Market rules
"Yes" — if the single "Been By Now" (Morgan Wallen) ranks 1st on the Billboard Hot 100 chart in at least one issue dated from August 15, 2026, to October 31, 2026, inclusive (source: billboard.com/charts/hot-100). The current level at the time of market creation: debuting at 2nd place in the chart dated August 8, 2026; 1st place is held by "Choosin' Texas" (Ella Langley). If the song's peak during the specified period is 2nd place or lower, the outcome is "No". Edge cases: remixes and alternative versions are counted only if Billboard consolidates them under the same chart line; achieving 1st place in related charts (Hot Country Songs, Global 200, Streaming Songs) does not count; in case of publication delays, the first official version of the relevant chart is taken; subsequent recalculations and corrections by Billboard up to the resolution date are considered.