Will Montenegro provisionally close 25 or more chapters of negotiations with the EU by December 31, 2027?
Current probability of “Yes”: 58%
- Status
- Open
- Category
- Politics
- Closing date
- 31 December 2027
- Participants
- 1
VangAI analysis
VangAI edge: +17 pp
- Montenegro has already provisionally closed 21 out of 33 negotiation chapters.
- Since 2025, the pace of closing chapters has accelerated, indicating growing momentum.
- The European Commission has presented a financial package for Montenegro's EU accession, underscoring the seriousness of intentions.
- The latest EU enlargement report notes significant progress by Montenegro in the accession process.
Like a marathon runner who has covered most of the distance, Montenegro is nearing the finish line.
Market rules
Criterion: the number of provisionally closed negotiation chapters of Montenegro's EU accession out of the 33 opened.
Threshold: "Yes" — if 25 or more chapters are provisionally closed by December 31, 2027. "No" — if 24 or fewer. If all 33 chapters are closed or the negotiations are fully completed by this date — the outcome is "Yes".
Source: European Commission, Montenegro enlargement page — https://enlargement.ec.europa.eu/countries/montenegro_en (sections EU-Montenegro relations and Key milestones).
Verification date: December 31, 2027, 18:00 UTC.
Status as of August 3, 2026 from the same source: all 33 chapters are open, 16 are provisionally closed (chapters 21, 2, 28, 8, and 29 were closed in 2026).
Tiebreakers: (1) direct indication of the number of provisionally closed chapters on the specified page takes priority; (2) if no such indication is available or it is not updated, the number is determined by summing the chapters closed at intergovernmental conferences in the Key milestones section of the same page; (3) if data is later revised, the state of the page at 18:00 UTC on December 31, 2027 is taken into account; (4) if the page is unavailable or moved, the resolution is postponed until its restoration or the publication of a current document from the European Commission on Montenegro, but no later than January 31, 2028.