Will Microsoft’s revenue exceed $92 billion for the first quarter of the 2027 fiscal year?
Current probability of “Yes”: 50%
- Status
- Open
- Category
- Technologies
- Closing date
- 11 November 2026
- Participants
- 0
VangAI analysis
VangAI estimate: -20% for “No”, confidence 80%
- Microsoft's projected revenue range for Q1 FY2027 is $89.85–$90.95 billion, below the $92 billion threshold.
It's like trying to jump over a bar set higher than your current record.
Market rules
"Yes" if in the official Microsoft press release regarding the results of the 1st quarter of the 2027 fiscal year (the quarter ending September 30, 2026) the quarterly revenue (revenue, GAAP) is strictly greater than $92.0 billion. Numeric threshold: > $92.0 billion. Source: https://www.microsoft.com/en-us/investor/earnings/fy-2027-q1/press-release-webcast. Reference on 08/03/2026: revenue for Q1 FY2026 (September 2025) – $77.7 billion (+18% y/y), for Q4 FY2026 (June 2026) – $90.0 billion (+18% y/y); the date of the Q1 FY2027 report publication on the IR website has not yet been announced, historically it is the end of October. Otherwise, "No". Edge cases: a value of exactly $92.0 billion – "No"; the top line "Revenue" in the first published release is taken into consideration, subsequent data restatement does not change the outcome; non-GAAP and constant-currency figures are not considered. If the release is published late, the final outcome is fixed within 72 hours after the resolution date; if by that time the release has not been published – "No". If the page address changes, the corresponding section Earnings on microsoft.com/investor for Q1 FY2027 is used.