Will the Michibiki 7 (QZS-7) satellite launch on the H3 rocket before September 30, 2026?
Current probability of “Yes”: 50%
- Status
- Resolved
- Category
- Science
- Closing date
- 1 October 2026
- Participants
- 0
- Outcome
- Yes
- Resolution date
- 4 October 2026
VangAI analysis
VangAI edge: +50 pp
- The launch of Michibiki 7 (QZS-7) on the H3-22S rocket occurred on August 10, 2026, from the Tanegashima Space Center.
Like a train arriving at the station on time, this launch occurred as scheduled.
Market rules
"Yes" if the launch of the Michibiki 7 (QZS-7) mission on the H3-22S (MHI) rocket from the Tanegashima Space Center (LA-Y2) occurs between 03.08.2026 and 30.09.2026 inclusive (by 23:59 UTC on 30.09.2026). Numerical threshold: at least 1 successful lift-off from the launch pad (T-0). Verification criterion: the mission page https://nextspaceflight.com/launches/details/7080/ shows a successful launch (status Success or Failure) with a launch date within the specified window. Otherwise, “No”. Status as of 03.08.2026: the launch date is listed as NET August 2026 (not earlier than August 2026), exact date not announced. Edge cases: an emergency launch is considered successful; cancellation or interruption of countdown without lift-off — "No"; postponement to October 2026 or later, change of launch vehicle, or cancellation of the mission — "No". If nextspaceflight.com updates data with a delay, revises the date, or the page is unavailable, the outcome is fixed based on the status of the same page within 72 hours after the resolution date.