Will a meteoroid at least 1 meter in size enter the Earth's atmosphere by the end of 2027?
Current probability of “Yes”: 86%
- Status
- Open
- Category
- Science
- Closing date
- 1 January 2028
- Participants
- 2
VangAI analysis
VangAI edge: +13 pp
- Approximately 35-40 objects with a diameter of 1 meter or more enter Earth's atmosphere annually.
- This corresponds to approximately one such event every 10 days.
- Therefore, approximately 70 such events can be expected in the remaining 2 years until the end of 2027.
- The data is corroborated by observations from NASA and other agencies.
The probability of this event is as high as the likelihood of the sun rising tomorrow.
Market rules
"Yes" if, by December 31, 2027, there is a recorded and confirmed entry of a natural body (meteoroid/asteroid) into the Earth's atmosphere with an estimated size of at least 1 meter in diameter. Only natural bodies are considered; space debris and artificial objects are not included. Size/energy is determined by the official assessment from NASA CNEOS (Fireball and Bolide Data database) or, if available, by confirmation from ESA NEOCC or the Meteoritical Bulletin. In the absence of a clear size estimate in the source, a body with an estimated entry energy corresponding to a diameter ≥1 m will be counted.
"No" if such an event is not recorded during the period.