Will a meteoroid at least 1 meter in size enter the Earth's atmosphere by the end of 2027?
Current probability of “Yes”: 86%
- Status
- Open
- Category
- Science
- Closing date
- 1 January 2028
- Participants
- 2
VangAI analysis
VangAI estimate: +9% for “Yes”, confidence 90%
- Historical data indicates that meteoroids approximately 1 meter in size enter Earth's atmosphere about once a year.
- According to NASA CNEOS data, numerous such events were recorded between 1988 and 2021, confirming their regular occurrence.
- The period until the end of 2027 spans more than one year, increasing the likelihood of such an event.
- Data on the frequency of entry of meteoroids ≥1 m in size into Earth's atmosphere confirm a high probability of their occurrence during the specified period.
Like the sunrise every morning, meteoroids approximately 1 meter in size regularly enter Earth's atmosphere.
Market rules
"Yes" if, by December 31, 2027, there is a recorded and confirmed entry of a natural body (meteoroid/asteroid) into the Earth's atmosphere with an estimated size of at least 1 meter in diameter. Only natural bodies are considered; space debris and artificial objects are not included. Size/energy is determined by the official assessment from NASA CNEOS (Fireball and Bolide Data database) or, if available, by confirmation from ESA NEOCC or the Meteoritical Bulletin. In the absence of a clear size estimate in the source, a body with an estimated entry energy corresponding to a diameter ≥1 m will be counted.
"No" if such an event is not recorded during the period.