Mariah Carey to 'unfreeze' early: Will 'All I Want for Christmas Is You' become #1 on the Hot 100 by the chart dated December 12?
Current probability of “Yes”: 12%
- Status
- Open
- Category
- Entertainment
- Closing date
- 9 December 2026
- Participants
- 1
VangAI analysis
VangAI edge: +73 pp
- 'All I Want for Christmas Is You' has consistently reached No. 1 on the Billboard Hot 100 in December since 2019.
- The song has become a staple of the holiday season, ensuring annual increases in streaming and sales.
- Historically, the song peaks on the charts in early December, aligning with the market's conditions.
- The absence of significant changes in the music industry or competition makes a deviation from this trend unlikely.
Like a clock that strikes the same time every year.
Market rules
Yes, if Mariah Carey's song 'All I Want for Christmas Is You' reaches #1 on the Billboard Hot 100 chart at least in one of the charts dated from October 31 to December 12, 2026 inclusive (the last one being the tracking period from November 27 to December 3, 2026). Otherwise No. Source: billboard.com/charts/hot-100 (archive by chart dates) or official articles from Billboard Chart Beat. Data published at the time of resolution 09.12.2026 12:00 UTC is used; if Billboard delays the publication of the chart dated 12.12.2026, the resolution is postponed until its publication (no later than 16.12.2026).