Will Lula win the presidential elections in Brazil by October 26, 2026?
Current probability of “Yes”: 91%
- Status
- Open
- Category
- Politics
- Closing date
- 27 October 2026
- Participants
- 2
VangAI analysis
VangAI estimate: -46% for “No”, confidence 80%
- Recent polls indicate that Lula and Flávio Bolsonaro are neck and neck, with Bolsonaro holding a slight lead.
- Forecasting models like Plano Político assign Bolsonaro a 58% chance of victory compared to Lula's 41%.
- Recent political moves by Lula, such as increasing Bolsa Familia payments, have not led to significant gains in his popularity.
- Economic issues, including high public debt and the need for fiscal adjustment, may impact Lula's chances of re-election.
Betting on Lula now is like wagering on a team that's trailing, hoping for a comeback.
Market rules
The market resolves to "Yes" if, according to the official results of TSE (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, tse.jus.br), Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva is declared the elected president of Brazil in the 2026 elections — either by winning in the first round on October 4, 2026 (receiving more than 50% of valid votes), or by winning the second round on October 25, 2026. As of August 13, 2026 (CNT/MDA poll), Lula was leading in a hypothetical second round with a margin of 48% against 39.1% for Flávio Bolsonaro, with the gap narrowing. If, according to the official results of TSE, another candidate is elected president — "No". Source: official TSE website (tse.jus.br), section on the results of the 2026 elections.