Will Lula win the presidential elections in Brazil by October 26, 2026?
Current probability of “Yes”: 91%
- Status
- Settled
- Category
- Politics
- Closing date
- 27 October 2026
- Participants
- 2
- Outcome
- Yes
- Resolution date
- 29 October 2026
VangAI analysis
VangAI edge: -42 pp
- Recent polls indicate Flávio Bolsonaro leading Lula in the second round.
- The gap between candidates is within the margin of error, indicating uncertainty.
- Lula previously led in polls, but his support has declined in recent weeks.
- Flávio Bolsonaro has received endorsements from various political and public figures, bolstering his campaign.
Betting on Lula now is like wagering on a team that's trailing, hoping for a comeback.
Market rules
The market resolves to "Yes" if, according to the official results of TSE (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, tse.jus.br), Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva is declared the elected president of Brazil in the 2026 elections — either by winning in the first round on October 4, 2026 (receiving more than 50% of valid votes), or by winning the second round on October 25, 2026. As of August 13, 2026 (CNT/MDA poll), Lula was leading in a hypothetical second round with a margin of 48% against 39.1% for Flávio Bolsonaro, with the gap narrowing. If, according to the official results of TSE, another candidate is elected president — "No". Source: official TSE website (tse.jus.br), section on the results of the 2026 elections.