Will the hacker who compromised the Liquid Network return the remaining ~600 BTC by October 31, 2026?
Current probability of “Yes”: 88%
- Status
- Settled
- Category
- Crypto
- Closing date
- 31 October 2026
- Participants
- 1
- Outcome
- No
- Resolution date
- 2 November 2026
VangAI analysis
VangAI edge: -83 pp
- The attacker holds 598.5 BTC and demands a 10% bounty, which Blockstream has refused.
- Over a month has passed since the hack, and the remaining funds have not been returned.
- Blockstream's refusal to pay the demanded amount may lead to a stalemate.
- There are no indications that the attacker intends to return the funds without their conditions being met.
It's akin to a hostage being held until demands are met, which are not being fulfilled.
Market rules
The market resolves to "Yes" if, from the creation of the market until 23:59 UTC on October 31, 2026, the attacker who compromised the Liquid Network voluntarily returns at least 500 BTC of the remaining ~598.5 BTC to Blockstream/Liquid Network, and this is confirmed by an official statement from Blockstream or Liquid Network (account @Liquid_BTC, Blockstream blog) or public on-chain data referenced in such a statement. Excluded are: seizure or freezing of funds by law enforcement or exchanges; return of less than 500 BTC. Paying a reward to the attacker is not a condition of the market. If less than 500 BTC is not returned within the specified period — "No". Context at the date of market creation: as of September 7, 2026, ~3,400 of ~4,000 BTC have been returned, and Blockstream has publicly declined to pay the 10% demanded by the attackers.