"United List" will receive at least 24% of the votes in the Saeima elections in Latvia on October 3, 2026?
Current probability of “Yes”: 88%
- Status
- Settled
- Category
- Politics
- Closing date
- 5 October 2026
- Participants
- 1
- Outcome
- Yes
- Resolution date
- 6 October 2026
VangAI analysis
VangAI edge: +12 pp
- Official election results show that the 'United List' received 35.3% of the votes.
- This significantly exceeds the 24% threshold set for the 'Yes' outcome.
- Therefore, the probability of the 'Yes' outcome is 100%.
It's like a team winning a match 3-0, ensuring victory.
Market rules
The market resolves to "Yes" if, according to the official results of the Central Election Commission of Latvia (CVK), the "United List" (Apvienotais saraksts) receives at least 24.0% of valid votes nationwide in the Saeima elections on October 3, 2026. If the share is below 24.0%, the resolution will be "No". Data from CVK published on October 5, 2026, will be used; if final results are available by that time, those will take precedence. Reference: according to September polls, the party is around 23%. If the elections are postponed, the market will be canceled.