"United List" will receive at least 24% of the votes in the Saeima elections in Latvia on October 3, 2026?
Current probability of “Yes”: 88%
- Status
- Open
- Category
- Politics
- Closing date
- 5 October 2026
- Participants
- 1
Market rules
The market resolves to "Yes" if, according to the official results of the Central Election Commission of Latvia (CVK), the "United List" (Apvienotais saraksts) receives at least 24.0% of valid votes nationwide in the Saeima elections on October 3, 2026. If the share is below 24.0%, the resolution will be "No". Data from CVK published on October 5, 2026, will be used; if final results are available by that time, those will take precedence. Reference: according to September polls, the party is around 23%. If the elections are postponed, the market will be canceled.