Will the voter turnout in the elections for the deputies of the Kurultai of Kazakhstan on August 23, 2026, exceed 60%?
Current probability of “Yes”: 50%
- Status
- Resolved
- Category
- Politics
- Closing date
- 31 August 2026
- Participants
- 0
- Outcome
- Yes
- Resolution date
- 1 September 2026
VangAI analysis
VangAI estimate: +40% for “Yes”, confidence 95%
- Historically high voter turnout in Kazakhstan's elections, including 74.08% in the Kurultai elections on August 23, 2026.
- The current political climate and support for the ruling party contribute to high voter turnout.
- Measures taken to increase voter participation, such as informational campaigns and convenient voting conditions.
- The lack of significant opposition reduces the likelihood of election boycotts and promotes high turnout.
As in previous elections where turnout exceeded 60%, current conditions also favor high voter participation.
Market rules
Criterion: the final voter turnout in the elections for the deputies of the Kurultai of the Republic of Kazakhstan, scheduled for August 23, 2026.
Threshold: "Yes" — if the official final turnout is strictly more than 60.00% of the number of voters included in the lists. "No" — if 60.00% or less, as well as if the voting on August 23, 2026, does not take place.
Source: Central Election Commission of the Republic of Kazakhstan, page of the election campaign "ҚҰРЫЛТАЙ" — https://www.election.gov.kz/rus/banners/?ID=10194 (resolutions and reports of the CEC RK on the election results).
Verification date: August 31, 2026, 12:00 UTC.
Context reference: the turnout in the elections for the deputies of the Mazhilis on March 19, 2023, was 54.21%.
Edge cases: (1) if at the time of verification only preliminary data from the CEC is published, the last officially published CEC turnout value is used; (2) if the CEC later clarifies the final turnout and the clarification is published before 12:00 UTC on August 31, 2026, the clarified value takes precedence; revisions after this moment do not change the outcome; (3) in case of delays in the publication of CEC data, the resolution is postponed until the first official CEC publication, but no later than September 30, 2026; (4) the value is rounded to two decimal places, exactly 60.00% is interpreted as "No".