Will "The Hunger Games: Sunrise on the Reaping" make at least $75 million in its opening weekend in the USA?
Current probability of “Yes”: 50%
- Status
- Open
- Category
- Entertainment
- Closing date
- 24 November 2026
- Participants
- 0
VangAI analysis
VangAI edge: +45 pp
- Strong pre-sales predicting an opening above $100 million
- Positive early reviews comparing the film to 'Rogue One' and 'Andor'
- Return to popular franchise elements like the arena and Games preparation
- Involvement of notable actors and cameos from original stars
Like 'Avengers: Endgame' with its record-breaking earnings
Market rules
Yes — if Box Office Mojo on the page for The Hunger Games: Sunrise on the Reaping (https://www.boxofficemojo.com/title/tt32558705/) states Domestic Opening Weekend (3 days, Fri–Sun, November 20–22, 2026) is at least $75,000,000. No — if the amount is less than $75,000,000.
The final (actuals) figure in the "Domestic Opening" block as of November 24, 2026, 20:00 UTC will be taken; preliminary studio estimates will not be considered. An amount exactly $75,000,000 is counted as "Yes".
Edge cases: (1) if the release is postponed and the film has not been widely released in the USA by November 22, 2026, inclusive — outcome "No"; (2) if Box Office Mojo has not updated the data by November 24, 2026, 20:00 UTC — the first published Domestic Opening figure within the next 72 hours will be taken; (3) preview/Thursday earnings are only counted if Box Office Mojo includes them in the Opening Weekend figure.