Will "The Hunger Games: Sunrise on the Reaping" make at least $75 million in its opening weekend in the USA?
Current probability of “Yes”: 50%
- Status
- Open
- Category
- Entertainment
- Closing date
- 24 November 2026
- Participants
- 0
VangAI analysis
VangAI estimate: +15% for “Yes”, confidence 70%
- The Hunger Games franchise has a history of successful opening weekends, including $152.5 million for the original film and $158 million for 'Catching Fire'.
- The latest prequel, 'The Ballad of Songbirds & Snakes', grossed $44.6 million in its opening weekend, which was below expectations.
- 'Sunrise on the Reaping' has a higher production budget ($185 million) and the return of director Francis Lawrence, which may attract more viewers.
- The release is scheduled for November 20, 2026, coinciding with the holiday season, potentially boosting attendance.
Just as 'Catching Fire' surpassed the original film, 'Sunrise on the Reaping' may surpass the previous prequel.
Market rules
Yes — if Box Office Mojo on the page for The Hunger Games: Sunrise on the Reaping (https://www.boxofficemojo.com/title/tt32558705/) states Domestic Opening Weekend (3 days, Fri–Sun, November 20–22, 2026) is at least $75,000,000. No — if the amount is less than $75,000,000.
The final (actuals) figure in the "Domestic Opening" block as of November 24, 2026, 20:00 UTC will be taken; preliminary studio estimates will not be considered. An amount exactly $75,000,000 is counted as "Yes".
Edge cases: (1) if the release is postponed and the film has not been widely released in the USA by November 22, 2026, inclusive — outcome "No"; (2) if Box Office Mojo has not updated the data by November 24, 2026, 20:00 UTC — the first published Domestic Opening figure within the next 72 hours will be taken; (3) preview/Thursday earnings are only counted if Box Office Mojo includes them in the Opening Weekend figure.