Will Musk release Grok 4.7 by September 30, 2026?

Current probability of “Yes”: 12%

Status
Open
Category
Technologies
Closing date
1 October 2026
Participants
1

Market rules

The market is resolved to "Yes" if, from the moment the market is created until 23:59 UTC on September 30, 2026, SpaceXAI (xAI) officially releases the Grok 4.7 model for public access: it must be available through the API (to appear in the documentation/release notes on docs.x.ai) or in the Grok app/website at least for paid subscribers. Closed beta tests, "leaks", entries in cloud provider quotas, announcements without user access, and previews for a limited number of partners are not considered. Names like "Grok 4.7 Fast" or "Grok 4.7 Mini" without the core Grok 4.7 model are not considered; "Grok 4.7 (Heavy)" and other variations of the core model are considered. Context at the creation date: Musk mentioned deadlines of August 21, early September, and September 11, 2026; on September 11, he stated that the models "need a few more days"; as of September 20, Grok 4.7 is absent in the release notes (the latest model is Grok 4.6, August 12). If there is no public release by the specified date, the answer is "No".

Official resolution source